Recently, there have been many discussions about the "export illusion recovery". Some analysts believe that with the recovery of the global economy, China's export recovery is worth looking forward to. Analysts interviewed by a reporter from the China Securities Journal said that from the perspective of the effectiveness of foreign trade policy stabilization and multiple indicators, China's exports cannot escape the export cycle of "rising first, then stabilizing and then falling". In the future, China's exports will remain stable and should not be overly optimistic.
Exports should not be overly optimistic
Exports in June increased by 7.2% year-on-year, basically the same as in May. In the first half of the year, the total import and export growth rate was 1.2% year-on-year, while exports only increased by 0.8%, which was far below the annual target of 7.5%. Jiang Chao, chief macro analyst at Haitong Securities, believes that holding on to the traditional economic analysis framework will easily lead to the "export recovery theory" of several major misunderstandings. In the future, China's exports will only remain stable and should not be overly optimistic.
The major misunderstandings Jiang Chao said include: "The policy of stabilizing foreign trade growth will drive export recovery", "Developed countries' economies are picking up and increasing Chinese exports", "China's share of global exports is rising, and recovery is imminent" and "OECD comprehensive leading indicators. Heralds the recovery of China's exports."
Specifically, Jiang Chao believes that in the new round of "stabilizing foreign trade" support measures, subsidies and care policies have been greatly reduced. The effect of promoting the short-term stabilization of foreign trade is obvious, but the long-term lack of substantive promotion. In addition, this round of economic recovery in developed countries is typically characterized by remanufacturing. For example, the return of manufacturing in the United States, "de-sinicization" is obvious, and its pulling effect on emerging economies has been significantly weakened. The overall trend of market share changes concealed challenges at the industry level. For example, the market share of Chinese light industrial products exports in the United States is declining, and technology-intensive products have recently peaked after several years of rapid growth.
A number of measures have been rolled out
The market is paying more attention to the implementation of the "Several Opinions on Supporting the Stable Growth of Foreign Trade" recently issued by the General Office of the State Council. A reporter from China Securities News learned from the 2014 National Import and Export Work Conference recently held by the Ministry of Commerce that various departments and localities are actively introducing supporting policies, including Hebei, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, Sichuan, Qinghai, etc. 9 The province has already introduced supporting measures, and other provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) such as Beijing, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Chongqing will also introduce them in the near future.
At the same time, the meeting proposed that it will continue to accelerate the cleanup and standardization of import and export links, further improve the level of trade facilitation, accelerate the progress of export tax rebates, broaden the financing channels of foreign trade enterprises, and alleviate financing difficulties and expensive financing problems. At the same time, support the development of new trade methods and platforms such as cross-border e-commerce, market procurement trade, and foreign trade comprehensive service enterprises, accelerate the cultivation of new competitive advantages in foreign trade with technology, brand, quality, and service as the core, and promote the adjustment and transformation of foreign trade structure.
In fact, the policy of stabilizing foreign trade has begun to increase. A reporter from China Securities News learned that the Ministry of Commerce is actively supporting the shift of processing trade to the west, providing free value-added services to processing trade network enterprises in four western provinces, including Tibet, Gansu, Qinghai, and Ningxia. The General Administration of Customs' measures to stabilize foreign trade will also be rolled out one after another.