In the second quarter of this year, with the help of micro-stimulus, China's economy rebounded slightly, and the GDP growth rate increased from 7.4% to 7.5%. In addition, as localities increased investment, the local economy generally rebounded. However, monetary policy and fiscal policy are working together, and its "side effects" are still worrying.
　　 China Securities Journal mentioned the following three points in the article:
　　 1. Will the "four trillion sequelae" be staged again; 2. Structural adjustments and private investment are still weak; 3. Financial risks.
In the first half of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in the first half of this year reached 14.7%, surpassing the goal of 13% at the beginning of the year. While the scale of social financing increased significantly, off-balance sheet business began to expand again. In June, off-balance sheet business accounted for 24.4%, up from the previous month 9.6 percentage points.
　　 This makes people worry about whether the previous scenario of 4 trillion yuan pushing up corporate and local government leverage will be repeated.
　　 In terms of structural adjustment, from the perspective of the three major industries, the contribution rate of the secondary industry has increased significantly compared with the first quarter, while the contribution rate of the tertiary industry and the primary industry has declined. The investment and profitability of private enterprises have not seen much improvement. The industrial added value in June jumped from 8.8% in the previous month to 9.2%, but in terms of the types of enterprises, state-owned and state-controlled enterprises rebounded the most. China Securities Journal believes
　　The increase in industrial added value is mainly related to the acceleration of project progress by upstream state-owned enterprises.
　　It also mentioned that since the key to stabilizing the economy lies in stable investment, the current infrastructure growth rate has fallen, and it is difficult for real estate investment to escape the downward channel in the short term, which means that the investment contribution rate may continue to decline.
　　At present, the operating conditions of SMEs have not improved significantly, private investment is still at a low level, and the endogenous economic power is still weak.
　　In terms of financial risks, reports say that financial risks in some areas or regions in my country are currently more prominent
　　it is mainly manifested by the excessively high debt ratio of some enterprises, the increase of non-performing loans in industries with severe overcapacity, the increase in the risk of default in the redemption of high-yield wealth management products, and the hidden dangers of financial industry network and information security. Recently, another wave of risks has quietly struck the bond market, and many private companies have stood on the edge of the cliff of bond default.
　　 For example, Huatong Bridge’s short-term financial bonds, on the 16th, Huatong Bridge Group announced that because the chairman of the company is assisting relevant departments in the investigation, the redemption of the principal and interest of short-term financing bonds due on the 23rd is facing uncertainty. If the short-term loan cannot be redeemed at that time, it will become China's first bond with defaulted principal.
　　 In addition, the investment bank Bank of America Merrill Lynch once issued a report that during the peak period when collective trust products expired in the second and third quarters of this year, many trust products were facing a redemption crisis.
　　 Li Zuojun, deputy director of the Resource and Environmental Policy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, recently wrote an article that stabilizing and maintaining growth measures are after all only stimulus policies, and the duration of their effects is limited.
　　 The strong stimulus policy in 2009 brought a three-quarter rebound. The stimulus policy in May 2012 only brought a one-month rebound. Last year it only brought a quarterly rebound. This year, it will rebound in one or two quarters at most. As long as no further measures are taken, the economy will go down. This is a trend that has been clearly seen in the past few years.
　　 The China Securities Journal also mentioned that it is difficult to provide long-term impetus for economic development only by relying on loose currency, loose credit and increased fiscal expenditure.
　　 In the second half of the year, while ensuring the intensity of micro-stimulus, it is necessary to intensify reforms in an all-round way. These include structural adjustments to fiscal policies, streamlining administration and decentralization, pilot reforms of state-owned enterprises, marketization of interest rates and exchange rates, and reform of rural land and household registration systems.